One of the approaches to modeling the process of insect development to improve the effectiveness of protective measures of fruit crops
https://doi.org/10.36305/0513-1634-2021-140-31-36
Abstract
Protection of fruit crops from pests is one of the most important tasks of gardening. In turn, the use of protective measures has both positive and negative sides, which makes the issue of improving their effectiveness one of the main ones. Having data on the estimated number of pests and the dates of the beginning of their development phases, it is possible to increase efficiency by choosing the optimal exposure measure and drawing up a more accurate schedule of protective measures. One way to determine such parameters is to use simulation. The article presents one of the approaches to constructing a mathematical model of the insect development process, which is used to build a software simulation model that allows to increase the effectiveness of protective measures of fruit crops. The article describes what is the essence of the modeled process. A mathematical model and methods for determining its parameters are presented. The required initial data for modeling are defined.
About the Authors
E. P. RybalkinRussian Federation
Nikita, Yalta, Republic of the Crimea, 298648
V. A. Shishkin
Russian Federation
Nikita, Yalta, Republic of the Crimea, 298648
V. N. Opanasenko
Russian Federation
Nikita, Yalta, Republic of the Crimea, 298648
References
1. Баврин И.И. Теория вероятностей и математическая статистика. - М.: Высш. шк. - 2005. - 160 с.
2. Балыкина Е.Б., Черний А.М. Энтомоакарокомплекс и защита яблоневых садов Крыма. - Симферополь: Из-во «Ариал». - 2018. - 348 с.
3. Боровков А.А. Теория вероятностей: Учебное пособие / Изд. 5-е, сущ. перераб. и доп. - М.: Книжный дом «ЛИБРОКОМ», 2009. - 656 с.
4. Васильев В.П. Лившиц И.З. Вредители плодовых культур. - М.: Колос, 1984. - 398 с.
5. Гихман И.И., Скороход А.В. Введение в теорию случайных процессов. - М.: Наука, 1977. - С. 568.
6. Кельберт М.Я., Сухов Ю.М. Вероятность и статистика в примерах и задачах. Т. ІІ: Марковские цепи как отправная точка теории случайных процессов и их приложения. - М.: МЦНМО, 2010. - С. 295.
7. Мигулин А.А. Влияние климата на динамику численности вредных насекомых // Сборник научных трудов УЭО. - 1970. - Т. 138. - С. 17-94.
8. Митрофанов В.И, Балыкина Е.Б., Трикоз Н.Н. Интегрированные системы защиты плодовых и субтропических культур. Методические рекомендации. - Ялта: Б.и., 2004. - С. 45.
9. Поликарпова Н.И., Шалыто А.А. Автоматное программирование. - СПб.: СПбГПУ, 2008. - 227 с.
Review
For citations:
Rybalkin E.P., Shishkin V.A., Opanasenko V.N. One of the approaches to modeling the process of insect development to improve the effectiveness of protective measures of fruit crops. Bulletin of the State Nikitsky Botanical Gardens. 2021;(140):31-36. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.36305/0513-1634-2021-140-31-36